[雙語翻譯]房地產外文翻譯-- 房地產市場的價格泡沫 （英文）

1、 80 REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT AND VALUATION www.degruyter.com/view/j/remav vol. 22, no. 1, 2014 PRICE BUBBLE IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET - BEHAVIORAL ASPECTS Justyna Brzezicka, M.Sc. Faculty of Geodesy and Land Management

2、 University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn e-mail: justyna.brzezicka@uwm.edu.pl Rados?aw Wisniewski, Assoc. Prof., PhD Faculty of Geodesy and Land Management University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn e-mail: danra

3、d@uwm.edu.pl Abstract The article pertains to the topic of speculative price bubbles which arise in the real estate market. The individual parts of the article deal with the connection between the price bubble in the A

4、merican real estate market and the global economic crisis, defining the concept of a price bubble with regard to the behaviors of market participants, providing a description of the environment generating price bubble

5、s, and systematizing the reasons behind the formation of price bubbles. The analysis of behavioral aspects accompanying the existence of a price bubble is a key issue. The assumed considerations indicate that the housi

6、ng price bubble could not exist in the real estate market (REM) if its formation was not accompanied by behavioral aspects. These aspects include, among others, giving in to temptations and emotions, limited rationalis

7、m, herd behavior, and seeking to make profits in a short amount of time at the expense of long-term negative consequences. The nature of these deliberations is theoretical. Keywords: real estate market, price bubble, b

8、ehavioral economics, behavioral aspects of the real estate market. JEL Classification: D03, L85, D79. Citation: Brzezicka J., Wi?niewski R., 2014, Price bubble in the real estate market - behavioral aspects, Real Estat

9、e Management and Valuation, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 80-93. DOI: 10.2478/remav-2014-0010. 1. Introduction The global economy is at a time of crisis and the situation in world markets is serious enough to where the crisis has

10、 quickly spread to the real sphere. It is widely known that the reason behind the current situation was the turbulence in the American real estate market (REM) and the formation of so called price bubbles. “Many of the

11、 world’s financial and economic woes since 2008 began with the bursting of the biggest bubble in history. Never before had house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries,“ (House of… 2011). The formation

12、 of price bubbles is not a new problem but, in the light of consequences which we are observing today, their impact on and significance to the world economy is very serious. Many experts are conducting advanced studies

13、 focused on factors which bring on the observed behavioral states which can, in general, be classified as risky behaviors. In light of research advances connected with behavioral sciences, it seems justified to ask the

14、 question of whether housing price bubbles form in processes which behavior is a synergic factor of. The aim of the article is to 1) present the phenomenon of price bubbles in the real estate market in light of behav

15、iors exhibited by REM participants, 2) systematize the causes responsible for the UnauthenticatedDownload Date | 3/11/18 7:57 AM82 REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT AND VALUATION www.degruyter.com/view/j/remav vol. 22, no. 1, 2014

16、 inflation), and structures (e.g., introducing new oversight or financing institutions) of this market. If, however, such factors cannot be identified and prices are shown to increase, the theory calls for the formatio

17、n of the price bubble phenomenon. Similar mechanisms rule other markets in which bubbles form, such as the financial market (CAGINALP, ILIEVA 2008). Contrary results are presented by GOODMAN and THIBODEAU (2008) who pr

18、ove that speculative phenomena drive real estate prices up significantly above the level which can be justified by fundamental economic indicators in less than half of the analyzed cities (the trial covered 84 metropol

19、itan areas in the US, with analyses conducted between the years 2000-2005). The REM price bubble (in the classical understanding) is the occurrence of a rapid increase in prices that is not justified by changes in the

20、 market fundamentals (?ASZEK et al. 2009). The most graphic explanation of the price bubble phenomenon is presented by HIMMELBERG et al. (2008, p. 1, cited in STIGLITZ 1990) - “If the reason that the price is high toda

21、y is only because investors believe that the selling price will be high tomorrow – when “fundamental“ factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists.“ The phenomenon can be graphically depicted with

22、 a chart that shows changes in real estate prices. A model bubble derived from the American market has been presented in figure 1. The long-term increase in the prices of real estate followed by their sudden drop is

23、particularly visible. Fig. 1. Dynamics of real estate prices in 20 USA agglomerations between the years 2000-2008 (01.2000 yr. = 100), Source: JUROWSKI and ZEGAD?O, 2009, p. 77. HIMMELBERG, MAYER and SINAI'S (2008)

24、 observations graphically and convincingly illustrate that the formation of a price bubble in the REM is a complex phenomenon. A more in depth analysis, however, indicates that the “human factor“ is an element of this

25、complexity, and within it, the behavioral factor. Using the following logic: Observation 1: lack of grounds behind fundamental changes in the REM system, as proposed by ?ASZEK et al. (2009); Observation 2: changes in

26、the REM system (in the light of observation 1) do take place however, and in a rather rapid manner; Conclusion 1: a price bubble is formed in the real estate market; Conclusion 2: the bubble is induced by non-fundamen

27、tal factors; Conclusion 3: the behaviors of participants (behavioral factors) play an important role in the formation of price bubbles in the real estate market system, the research hypothesis that “the existence of pr

28、ice bubbles in the real estate market is impossible if its formation is not accompanied by environmental factors“ can once again be formulated. Behaviors which are significant in the process of creating a price bubble

29、in the real estate market are mainly overconfidence in one's own judgment of the situation and basing one's decisions on the behaviors of other market participants (herd behavior). Along with the simultaneous a